A case study: The impact of low-cost carriers on inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on Saudi Arabia's tourism demand. It also provides an understanding of the relationship between air transport development and tourism development in the Gulf region. The Box–Jenkins SARIMA-X models were employed to model and forecast international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia, using monthly international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia from July 2010 to December 2015. The forecasting models were significantly accurate, with lower values of MAPE, MAP, and RMSE. The findings suggest that an increase in airline capacity, religious travel, and airline competition are associated with the increasing international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia. This also indicates that there is a positive relationship between air transport development and tourism development. Further aviation liberalisation in the Gulf region is discussed to give opportunities for the region's LCCs to increase their share of the increasing air travel demand, thereby enhancing tourism development.     

Determinants of Intra-GCC Food Trade

Using panel data for six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1995–2014, we assess the impacts of several major economic variables on intra-GCC food exports, and on GCC food exports to the world. The GCC customs union had minimal impact on intra-GCC food exports, but occasioned a significant reduction in GCC food exports. Unlike GCC food exports, intra-GCC food exports occurred among countries with similar relative factor endowments, in agreement with the Linder Hypothesis. Rising incomes and exchange rates played significant roles in both intra-GCC food exports and GCC food exports, while distance has lost its once-dominant role.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

我国服务业发展水平评价及对其出口竞争力影响研究

在构建"产业发展水平评价"理论模型的基础上,本文从产业的竞争能力、创新能力和载体支撑能力"三力"视角设计了我国服务业发展水平的评价指标体系,实证我国服务业整体发展水平和"三力"的非均衡程度。借助"出口技术含量指数"计量我国服务贸易出口竞争力。之后,分别从整体和"三力"及部门视角实证检验两者关系。研究显示:(1)我国服务业发展水平、服务贸易出口竞争力均呈现逐年提升的发展趋势,但近年来增长幅度有所下降;(2)整体而言,我国服务业发展与服务贸易出口竞争力提升存在长期的均衡关系,前者是后者的格兰杰原因;(3)服务业"三力"中的"创新能力"对其出口竞争力的贡献度最小,这与我国服务业创新能力不强且科技成果转化成生产力效率不佳有关;不同的服务部门对服务贸易出口竞争力的影响程度存在着差异性,现代服务业相对传统服务业对服务贸易出口竞争力的作用更为明显。文章最后根据研究结论提出促进我国服务业发展和提升服务贸易出口竞争力的对策。     

快速城镇化地区不同生计类型农户耕地利用集约度评价 ——以上海市青浦区为例

研究目的:针对快速城镇化地区农户生计分化现象,以上海市青浦区为例,对不同生计策略类型农户的耕地利用集约度进行评价,并分析其影响因素,以期为改善农户土地利用行为、实现土地资源合理高效利用与农户生计可持续发展提供政策参考。研究方法:运用价值形态测度方法核算各生计类型农户的耕地利用集约度,以两水平方差成分模型确定耕地利用集约度影响因素。研究结果:(1)不同生计策略类型农户耕地利用集约度存在差异性,大小顺序依次为专业农业型、传统农业型、农业兼业型、非农兼业型,劳动集约度与资本集约度排序与之基本一致;(2)同一生计策略类型农户的耕地利用集约度存在相似性,耕地利用集约度的总变异中有24.32%是由农户生计策略类型不同而引起的,水平一中农业收入比重、农业补贴、耕地面积、地块平均离家距离、农户离集镇距离与水平二中是否兼业等是影响农户耕地利用集约度的显著因素;(3)模型拟合效果评价表明该方法具有可行性。研究结论:耕地利用集约度不仅与农户自身禀赋有关,而且受生计类型影响,政府相关部门应结合当地实际情况引导农户对这两方面进行调整或完善。     

Industrial land price between China’s Pearl River Delta and Southeast Asian regions: Competition or Coopetition?

The planned economy system’s previous form of industrial land market control in China has led to current market failure because of a large amount of industrial land being sold at a very low price, causing extensive overuse of land and negative effects on land management. As the “World Factory”, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is well known for its rapid urbanization largely driven by Foreign Direct Investment in labor-intensive industries. A low-land price strategy has been commonly adopted by the local government in order to attract industrial investment. In the past decade, the PRD has increasingly faced the increasing competition from its neighboring competition from its neighboring countries in Southeast Asia that have established preference policies to attract FDI and foreign enterprises. Despite a growing body of literature on the internal forces of industrial land in China, little is known of the external forces involved except for the importance of FDI and the intensity of interregional competition between China and other countries in attempting to attract foreign investment. This research fills the knowledge gap by modeling the situation in the form of an international cooperative game model aimed at revealing the industrial land price formation mechanism between the PRD region and Southeast Asian regions. The conditions of industrial land in the area and several Southeast Asian countries are first analyzed for their industrial land price movements in recent years. A game theoretic model is then built that exhibits similar characteristics. The result indicates that the governments’ low land price strategy and the competition between the PRD and its neighboring countries have created unnecessarily high social and environmental costs. Policy suggestions are made to encourage a more appropriate use of industrial land in China, and the most important being the need for a mindset shift from competition towards coopetition between the PRD and Southeast Asian regions.     

珠三角区域经济发展对动漫产业融资的影响

立足于珠三角动漫产业发展现状,通过对动漫产业融资难的原因进行分析,提出在区域经济发展过程中应采取的融资措施。     

Examination of Taiwan's travel and tourism market cycle through a two-period Markov regime-switching model

This study analyzes the Taiwan travel and tourism (T&T) market cycle. According to data of the weighted Taiwan tourism stock index from January 1997 to August 2015, the two-period Markov regime-switching model identifies two distinct regimes of the T&T cycle and incorporates a specific set of mean and variance parameters for each period to control for the structural changes in Taiwan's T&T market. The effect of China visitor arrivals to Taiwan on the T&T market is also verified. The empirical findings offer essential information and policy implications for Taiwan's government tourism policymakers and business managers.     

The impact of FIFA’s official announcements on the stock market of Qatar: The case of the 2022 World Cup

This study examines the impact of the FIFA’s official announcements on Doha Stock Exchange (DSE) of Qatar with respect to the 2022 World Cup. Using the abnormal unsystematic volatility method of Hilliard and Savickas (2002), our empirical findings reveal that the DSE market is sensitive to FIFA’s announcements about the 2022 World Cup. We find that four out of six FIFA announcements act as primary drivers to the DSE market volatility. The significant reactions of the DSE market to these announcements unveil the investors’ sentiments about the fate of the governmental and private expenditures on medium- and long-term projects undertaken in anticipation of hosting the 2022 World Cup. The results have some implications to investors in this newly emerging market related to this global sporting event. Any future announcements, good or bad, are likely to impact share prices in DSE market and trigger portfolio reallocation by local and international investors, leading to increased volatility.     

KIBS企业—顾客交互创新中知识整合的权变机制

引入过程互依性和项目不确定性,探讨了KIBS企业-顾客交互创新中知识整合的权变机制。基于338份服务创新项目问卷数据进行实证研究,结果显示:在KIBS企业-顾客交互四要素中,除规则正式化负向影响外部知识整合以外,决策集体化、资源共享和任务协作均正向影响内、外部知识整合;过程互依性增强了规则正式化、决策集体化和任务协作对内部知识整合的影响,但对资源共享与内部知识整合间关系的调节作用不显著;项目不确定性增强了规则正式化、资源共享和任务协作对外部知识整合的影响,但对决策集体化与外部知识整合间关系的调节作用不显著。